Random Walk Rankings

Welcome to Random Walk Rankings

College football fans love to argue about rankings. Polls, committees, and computer models all have their say, but they don’t always tell the full story. Some reward easy schedules, others feel like a mystery.

This site takes inspiration from a paper by Thomas Callaghan, Peter Mucha, and Mason Porter called Random Walker Ranking for NCAA Division I-A Football. In it, the authors introduced a simple but powerful idea: imagine thousands of fans changing their minds after every game. When a team wins, more fans lean their way. If they beat a tough opponent, it counts for more than blowing out an easy one. Over time, those shifts settle into a ranking that balances wins with strength of schedule.

That’s the method behind the rankings you’ll see here. Each week during the season, the numbers update as new results come in, showing not just who won, but who they beat and how much it mattered.

The goal isn’t to end the debate, because let’s face it, that’s half the fun of college football. The goal is to give you a clear, math-driven way to see the season, grounded in research but easy to follow.